On the existence of the ex post symmetric random entry model

This paper studies symmetry among countably infinitely many agents who randomly enter into a stochastic process, one for each period. Upon entry, they observe only the current period signal and try to draw inference about the underlying state governing the stochastic process. We show that there exist random entry models under which agents are ex post symmetric. That is, all agents have identical posterior belief about the underlying states, although they are not ex ante symmetric. The form of the posterior belief is uniquely pinned down by ex post symmetry and a stationarity condition. Our results provide a common prior foundation for the model studied in Liu and Skrzypacz (2014).     

创业企业何以提高创新绩效——基于创业学习与商业模式创新协同联动视角的QCA方法

以150个创业企业为样本，基于创业学习和商业模式创新理论，运用模糊集定性比较分析方法（fsQCA），探究经验学习、认知学习、新颖型商业模式创新和效率型商业模式创新对创新绩效的影响路径及机制。研究发现，存在新颖型商业模式创新等4条创新绩效产出关键路径；相较于效率型商业模式创新，新颖型商业模式创新在关键路径中更容易提高创新绩效；利用QCA方法证实了影响创业企业创新绩效的组态内部各要素之间的替代性。结论丰富了创新绩效产出内部机制，可为创业企业提高创新绩效提供指导和借鉴。     

Agro-pastoralism under climate change: Institutions and local climate adaptations in northern China

The livelihoods of resource-dependent peoples are vulnerable to climate variability. This study focuses on how local climate adaptations, which have been sustained through long-term interactions with local ecologies, have changed in the face of the challenges caused by climate change and policy interventions. Case studies were conducted in two agro-pastoral counties of northern China, a region that confronts frequent drought and that has experienced extensive institutional changes over recent decades. Based on the exploration of four adaptation strategies, the field results show that both counties have experienced an acceleration of livelihood diversification, an increase in storage and market exchanges, and a dramatic reduction in previously common pooling. The findings reveal that these adaptations are not a direct result of coping with climate risks but rather are indicative of livelihood strategies that result from the combined impacts of institutional, socioeconomic and climatic changes. Current institutional arrangements have negative impacts on local climate adaptations. This is particularly true for those with limited livelihood options, and such arrangements may therefore foster an increase in inequality with regard to household adaptive capacities over the long term. Therefore, this study recommends flexible policies that facilitate local arrangements rather than the current one-for-all policy.     

Performance and learning in an ambiguous environment: A study of cryptocurrency traders

We investigate the performance and learning ability of traders in an environment governed by ambiguity, such as the cryptocurrency market. Using a profit decomposition methodology, we find significant cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity in performance. Traders do not learn to progressively increase the magnitude of returns; however, they are able to improve on their ability to realise profits as a mechanism of adaptation to survive through ambiguity. This adaptation increases as traders progress through their career. Moreover, we find evidence in support of the gambler’s fallacy. We argue that learning in ambiguous environments has limitations, allowing traders primarily to survive.     

治理机制对顾客参与价值共创行为的影响——虚拟品牌社区的实证研究

虚拟品牌社区是企业与顾客进行价值共创的重要平台,顾客参与价值共创行为对企业长远发展具有十分重要的作用。现有研究多是基于不同的理论从顾客视角出发探索顾客参与价值共创行为受到的心理动机和个人特征等因素的影响,鲜有从企业视角出发,探索治理机制对虚拟品牌社区中顾客参与价值共创行为的影响。本文立足交易成本理论与社会交换理论,从企业视角切入,引入关系质量作为中介变量,构建虚拟品牌社区治理机制、关系质量与顾客参与价值共创行为的关系整合模型。采用问卷调查法对模型进行验证,研究结果显示:(1)契约治理机制只对知识贡献行为产生显著正向影响,对顾客公民行为的影响不显著,而关系治理机制对知识贡献行为与顾客公民行为均具有显著正向影响。(2)关系质量在契约治理机制与顾客公民行为的关系中起完全中介作用,在契约治理机制与知识贡献行为、关系治理机制与知识贡献行为以及关系治理机制与顾客公民行为的关系中起部分中介作用。由研究结论可知,虚拟品牌社区一方面应综合运用契约治理机制与关系治理机制来有效地促进顾客参与价值共创行为,以弥补单独运用某一种治理机制存在的不足;另一方面也应注重关系质量在虚拟品牌社区中促进顾客参与价值共创行为的重要作用。这些研究发现为促进虚拟品牌社区的可持续发展提供了有价值的启示。     

Dynamics of agricultural land use change in Kerala: a policy and social-ecological perspective

Land-use change is a phenomenon highlighting significant shifts in human interaction with the natural environment. Different patterns of agriculture and a trend towards non-agricultural land use challenge the sustainability of farming systems. This study aims to identify the causes of changes in land use and cropping patterns, with a special focus on paddy, the staple crop in Asia. In the case of Wayanad, a district in Kerala, South India, we argue for an interdisciplinary analysis of rapid land-use change to unpack the multiple dimensions of sustainability: economic, ecological and social factors, aggregating up to 70% reduction in the area under paddy by 2010. The results rest on empirical field research, participatory rural appraisals and stakeholder workshops conducted during the 4-year period from 2010 to 2013, along with state- and district-level data covering the 1983–2011 period. Reduced economic viability, labour shortages and population pressure on land are the major drivers for the transformation of paddy fields to other land uses. Changes in land use and agrarian structure reflect not only the livelihood strategies adopted by farmers in response to these drivers, but also the impacts of unintended policy idiosyncrasies. At a more fundamental level, they are the consequences of policy conflicts and inadequate sectoral integration of policies and implementation strategies.     

The contractionary effects of tax shocks on productivity: An empirical and theoretical analysis

I analyze the effects of tax policy changes on US Total Factor Productivity. VAR estimates show that permanent and exogenous tax increases have strong, permanent, and negative effects on TFP which represent about 80% of change in output following the tax increase. I then build a DSGE model which has learning-by-doing and endogenous TFP evolution. The benchmark model is able to replicate the empirical impulse responses. However, when I calibrate the model as in the literature, the effect of taxes on TFP is substantially less elastic than in the data. I argue that this divergence may arise because tax changes labeled as exogenous can give spurious results or because of a mis-specified model.     

Transformations of the Romanian agricultural paradigm under domestic economic policy reforms: An analysis during 1960–2011

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the transformations of the Romanian agricultural paradigm under the domestic economic policy reforms. An econometric approach is adopted by analyzing the evolution of Romanian agriculture between 1960 and 2011 from the perspective of its implications on residential land economy. This methodological choice relies on its high degree of applicability and its ability to reveal the massive transformation of the Romanian agricultural paradigm during the period under focus. Two regression models have been developed in the attempt to analyze the evolution of total value added and labor productivity in agriculture. The results obtained during the research confirm that Romanian agriculture exhibits determinant and significant elements able to trigger a massive change of paradigm.     

An extended peer communities’ knowledge sharing approach for environmental governance

This paper is devoted to propose an approach to implement the idea of extended peer knowledge to environmental governance by means of engaging the «extended peer communities». Socially robust knowledge relies on transparency and citizen participation. These two underlying elements take the form of both assessment and post-assessment decision support systems. Initially, during the assessment process citizens and stakeholders are engaged in the framing, proposal of alternatives, and evaluation criteria. Then the analysts assessed the alternatives proposed by means of DSS. Then, in a second stage, the analysts inspired in the idea of transparency, gave back the assessment result to the «extended peer community» who were able to give their opinion regarding the results and suggest potential parametric changes that were used for sensitivity analyses. The authors explore the proposed extended peer communities’ knowledge sharing for environmental governance assessment using a case study applied to a sustainable mobility planning process carried out in Tenerife (Canary Islands). The results gathered highlight that this approach is of use for guaranteeing the robustness of complex environmental decisions under high levels of uncertainty.